Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. They authors two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has got something to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
